After an exciting divisional round, the NFL is back with a couple mouthwatering matchups. There are four teams remaining, and all of these teams deserve to be here. Thus, each team has good odds of winning the Super Bowl. The table below shows each team’s probability of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Indianapolis next month.
As one might expect, the Patriots are heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl. They’re at 47.4 percent after routing the Denver Broncos 45-10 in Foxborough. The Pats have the best quarterback left in the playoffs inTom Brady and are led by mastermind Bill Belichick.
The odds for the 49ers and the Giants reveal an interesting difference between the conference round and the Super Bowl. The Niners are slight favorites heading into the weekend, primarily because of home-field advantage. However, they are less likely to win the Super Bowl than the Giants with a winning percentage of 18.8 compared to 19.0 for the G-Men. The difference is slight, but likely reflects New York’s success on the road.
The Ravens have the lowest winning percentage at 14.8 percent, thanks to questions on offense and a tough trip to New England on Sunday. Each team’s Super Bowl odds have improved significantly from the start of the playoffs, except for the Ravens. The Patriots improved from 16 percent, the Niners improved from 7 and the Giants improved from 2. The Ravens, on the other hand, have improved just 0.8 percent from 14.
This is a result of who the Ravens are playing this Sunday. New England will be a tough test for Baltimore, as the Patriots have a 68.7 percent chance of winning the game. The odds are stacked against them, but the Ravens can improve their odds significantly with a great defensive game or a good running game.
If running back Ray Rice rushes for at least 75 yards, which is possible at 38.6 percent, the game is nearly a toss-up with the Ravens winning 49.1 percent of the time. Baltimore’s odds get even better when Rice rumbles for an additional 25 yards.
If Rice rushes for at least 100 yards, the Ravens win 59.3 percent of the time. A good Baltimore running game controls the clock and keeps the Patriots’ offense off the field.
The Ravens’ defense was one of the best in the league all season, allowing just 16.6 points per game on 288.9 yards per game, but the Patriots’ offense is nearly unstoppable. Even if Baltimore holds New England to under 350 total yards, nearly 100 fewer yards than New England’s regular-season average, and forces one or more turnovers, the Ravens are still underdogs. If the Ravens can force at least two turnovers, their winning percentage jumps up to 57.9. However, that scenario is very unlikely at just a 12.8 percent chance of occurring.
Even though the Patriots are heavy favorites, the Ravens are more than capable of winning on the road behind Rice, but can offensive coordinator Cam Cameron call the right plays?
In the other game, San Francisco has a slight edge because of its playing at Candlestick Park, but that game is essentially a toss-up. The Pats are one Rice game away from a vacation. No one team is a lock to win or even make it the Super Bowl, and that’s what makes football great. This should be another spectacular Sunday.